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Deal or No Deal is the name of several closely related television game shows, the first of which (launching the format) was produced by Dutch producer Endemol in 2001
The general gameplay of Deal or No Deal involves a player, a host/presenter, banker and a set of numbered boxes, each containing different amounts of money. The values themselves are known at the begining of the game, but which case contains what amount is not known. At the begining of the game, a player picks a case that they hope is one of the most valuable. During the rest of the game, the player selects the rest of the cases one at a time for rejection and removal from play. The amount of money inside each selection is immediately revealed; by process of elimination, the amount revealed cannot be inside the player’s chosen case. After a preset number of cases (usually 3) have been opened, the banker offers the player an amount of money and/or prizes to quit the game, the offer based roughly on the amounts remaining in play and the player’s demeanor. The player then answers the titular question:
“Deal”, accepting the offer presented and ending the game, or
“No Deal”, permanently rejecting the offer and continuing to open cases
The process of removing cases and receiving offers continues until the player accepts an offer to quit, or until all offers have been rejected and all unselected cases revealed, the player then winning the value inside the case initially selected. If a player takes a deal, the game is typically continued to see how much the player could have won if they had remained in the game.
The values of each of the cases is indicated by a label or card located inside it. Various versions of the show have between 20 and 26 values; some versions have only cash values, others include prizes such as a car or booby prizes. For instance, there are 26 cases in the U.S. version, containing cash values from 1 cent to $1,000,000. The Australian version has 26 values from 50 cents to $200,000, but includes a car as one of its more valuable prizes.
Since the range of possible values is known at the start of each game, how much the banker offers at any given point changes based on what values have been eliminated. To promote suspense and lengthen games, the banker’s offer usually strays from the expected value dictated by probability theory, particularly early in the game. Generally, the offers early in the game are very low relative to the values still in play, and approach (or even exceed) the average of the remaining values near the end of the game.
Only a few people have ever won the top prize on any version of the show (see table below). For a player to win the top prize, they would have to select the case containing the top prize, and reject every offer the banker makes during the game. While the chances of a player selecting the top prize are reasonable (4-5% depending on how many amounts are in the game), the chances that a player will be able to turn down a number of inevitably large offers to win that top prize are much smaller.
Worldwide, the largest amount offered (after adjusting for exchange rates) was €1,495,000 on Dutch version Miljoenenjacht, on November 13, 2005 (which was accepted; the player’s case only had €1,000) (see the Miljoenenjacht page for details), making it possibly the biggest win in the history of the franchise, despite many versions (either occasionally or permanently) having higher top prizes.
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